Why are Leicester City doing so well, and are they over-achieving?

Who would have thought that Leicester City would be sitting pretty in second place with 45 points at this point in the season? Well, I certainly didn't, and I'm still in shock now. So what is the secret to their success, and would it fair to say that they are over-achieving?

Playing to strengths

One thing I've really noticed about this Leicester side is that everyone seems to enjoy their role in the team. They have arguably the 2nd best full back pairing in the league in Ricardo Periera and Ben Chillwell, who both love to bomb forward and ship in crosses, and even score occasionally, which this system allows them to do. Maddison is able to play in pockets and pop off shots or play a simple 'over the top' ball to Jamie Vardy, who as we know, is probably the most dangerous man in the league to play long-ball to. Vardy has found the net a staggering 17 times in 21 games and tops the Golden Boot rankings by 4 goals, and again, he is able to do so because the team plays to his strengths. While the long ball is effective, I find Leicester's approach is to drag opposition players out of their positions (either by overloading the midfield or out wide with the full backs) to make space for Vardy/Ayoze/Maddison to be just as dangerous. Ndidi is born box-to-box midfielder and Tielemans is given as much freedom as he needs to make things happen. Each player playing to their strengths makes for a happy dressing room and entertaining football, as we are witnessing this season.

Brendan Rodgers

The world is finally turning round to admit that Brendan Rodgers is actually a very very good coach. He was made fun of at Liverpool despite very nearly winning the league, with what was a very average side with Luis Suarez thrown in, and then at Celtic for taking an 'easy job' (Neil Lennon can testify to the opposite now that he's allowed Rangers so sit right on their tail). You can see why he took the job, the squad is really well balanced, and he plays to these dynamics perfectly. There is plenty of youthful talent in the side in Maddison, Barnes, Ndidi, Tielemans etc. but is healthily mixed in with experience in Vardy, Evans, Schmeichel and Wes Morgan (although he may take a more behind the scenes role this season) who have all won the league at some point in their careers. This marks a recipe for success - youth and innovation backed up with starting players who have seen it all, and know how to react to bad results and how top pick younger players heads up.

Solid Foundations

Leicester have conceded the least goals in the Premier League this season behind Liverpool, who have the added bonus of Virgil van Dijk. Soyuncu has stepped into Harry Maguire's shoes exceptionally well, and Johnny Evans is another one who seems to have been grossly underestimated throughout his whole career (I daresay Manchester United would take him back if they had the opportunity at the minute). As mentioned above, Ricardo and Chilwell are the perfect full backs for this team, not just for what they offer going forward (with 3 goals and 4 assists between them), but also defensively. I believe that while Andy Robertson is one of, if not the best left back in the world, that Ben Chilwell is a better out and out defender. He is perfect for this Leicester side, and it is no wonder he is being chased by a number of top level teams including Chelsea, PSG and Juventus. Behind them is Kasper Schmeichel, not only a really solid Premier League goalkeeper, but a key figure on the field, wearing the armband when Morgan isn't on the pitch. This defence is disciplined, as is the rest of the team, as is shown by the fact that there has not been a single red card for Leicester City this season, and sets the tone and expectation for the rest of the team.

But are they over-achieving?

Quite simply, yes they are. This team lacks the depth and sophistication of both City and Liverpool, and a title challenge in the next season or two with this squad does not seem likely to me. Villa's 1-1 draw proved it to me - if you cut out the long ball and suppress Maddison, keep Tielemans deeper rather than letting him bomb forward, they are actually quite a manageable side. This contrasts with Liverpool and City who both have a hundred different ways to break you down. They are certainly weakest in the wide areas, for me Barnes isn't quite there, Gray and Albrighton do not blow me away and Ayoze fits the system but that's all I can say for him really. They will need to reinforce these areas, and perhaps in midfield as well, Hazma Choudhury is average at best and Mendy looks one for the future rather than for now. If key players get serious injuries they could be in trouble. The question is: will they get Champions League football? They are certainly deserving of it, and they are by far the most consistent side vying for a place there above Chelsea, United, Spurs, Arsenal and Wolves.

Prediction

I think they will finish third or fourth this season, City are just too good to settle for third place. However that is not putting Leicester City down, they are fully deserving of top four, and it will be a real challenge for any team to take it from them. Vardy will take the Golden Boot if he stays fit, and every young player there will be linked with every rich team under the sun come the summer transfer window.