Will Inter's aggressive transfer strategy come good?

Antonio Conte's Inter revolution is already well under way, and with Olivier Giroud and Ashely Young reportedly close to confirming deals, as well as Christian Erkisen and Nemanja Matic also heavily linked with a move to the San Siro, the question must be posed; will this aggressive transfer strategy pay off for them?

The Numbers

This summer saw a mass overhaul of the squad under Conte's leadership. In all, 12 players transferred to Inter for total fees in the region of €140 million. Most notably would be Romelu Lukaku from Manchester United who makes up nearly half of that total fee (with his transfer costing in the region of €58 million, with further fees to be paid in future seasons). Stefano Sensei from Sassuolo (€4.5 million loan fee) and Nicolo Barella from Cagliari (€10.5 million loan fee) are two players who are to be made permanent transfers in this January window or in the summer, and are key figures in Conte's new explosive Inter side. When all departures are taken into consideration, Inter made a loss of just under €100 million. While the three names mentioned have been hailed by all parties as 'great business', and are indisputably key members of a great squad, I do not believe this kind of transfer model to be in any way sustainable. Remember what happened to AC Milan a few years ago? They similarly threw money at their squad problems and ended up being on the bad end of a Financial Fair Play investigation and were banned from European football for a year, and are still reeling from the sanctions imposed on them in the years that have followed. The way Inter are headed, they will far outspend the €200 million AC spent across two seasons to break the rules.

What do they need to do to avoid an FFP hit?

Inter need to make sure they don't make a loss next season. FFP rules state that a team cannot make a loss of €30 million or more for three seasons in a row, and there's no way they are coming up with €70 million from shirt and ticket sales this season to avoid hitting the first of those. They seem relentless in their aims of improving the squad at every opportunity and quite simply the only way for them to make money at this point is to win trophies. In fairness, they are already giving Juventus a really good title challenge this season, leading the table on goal difference and with the advantage of no Champions League football left to focus on (whereas Juve do), they look likely candidates to be champions this season. If they win the Scudetto, it would lay a really strong foundation for the seasons to come, and would certainly pay for their generous spending in the past year. However, should they fail to win a major trophy in the next couple of seasons they could be in real trouble, so it is imperative that Conte achieve some form of success in the short term, so that Inter can plan, and pay, for the long term.

What is the approach this January?

The call has gone out. Inter are offering a sanctuary to any older Premier League players who are after more first-team football this January. Giroud has agreed personal terms, and should Lampard give him his blessing he will sign as soon as he can. Ashley Young is reportedly trying to decide if he is going to wait until the end of the season to join or to pack his bags now, alongside his Manchester United teammate Nemanja Matic, who is desperate to leave Old Trafford, with either the San Siro or the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium his likely destinations. These three signings fit with what Conte is trying to do this January; to sign proven players that fit his system, in order to give Inter the much needed experience to beat Juventus to the title this season. It is likely they will be offered short-term deals; these players are all entering the twighlight of their careers, but Conte, and I for that matter, believe they still have something to offer in the short term. This team is brimming with youthful talent, but there are no champions there - these three have all won the Premier League at least once each, and bringing on board that kind of 'winners mentality' can only help this squad at this stage. On top of this, they are reinforcing areas that they need to - Vecino and Brozovic need cover in defensive midfield, Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have been excellent but need backup, and Conte notoriously works his full backs hard, so Young could provide another option there. Because of the likely small fees and short deals, I would expect that Inter will have to fork out quite heavily on wages here, but if it wins them a title, who cares?

Christian Eriksen

Chasing Eriksen really shows how far Inter have come in recent months. The Dane is one of the best midfielders in the Premier League, and the fact that he is reportedly most interested in joining Inter Milan over the host of teams queuing for his signature (including Manchester United, PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid) really puts into perspective what a good job Conte is doing. He is reportedly available for just €20 million, with Mourinho keen to cut anyone who does not absolutely want to be there as early as possible, perhaps in an attempt to stop what happened at United from happening at Spurs. He would be the crowning jewel of that Inter side, but in all honestly, I don't actually think they need him! There is plenty of creativity at the feet of Sensei, Barella and Gagliardini (not to mention Brozovic, who holds the 'midfield destroyer' title, but is excellent at creating chances from deep). I struggle to think where Eriksen actually fits, he isn't a typical 'Conte" player, which begs the question - are Inter trying to sign him just to show that they can?

Will it pay off?

As mentioned above, if they win something then it has most certainly paid off. Keeping Conte and this squad happy must be the priority at the moment for the Inter board. If they fail to win anything in the next 3-4 seasons, players will start to leave, and all of this work will have been for nothing. Inter must not tread the same path as their inter-city rival, and bring success back to Milan to avoid fading back into mediocrity.